List all the contacts Monet had, from the onset of symptoms to death. Then list the next
three people each of those contacts might have had. How many possible infections do you
have in this scenario?
From the moment he showed signs of the disease to his death, Monet made contact with many people. After he came back from Kitum Cave, “his housekeeper, Johnnie…tried to take care of him” (Preston, 1994, pg. 11). Johnnie could have gone home and infected her husband and two daughters. The total number of those infected would be four. Then, Monet’s “colleagues …went to his bungalow to see if he was alright” (Preston, 1994, pg. 12). The number of colleagues was not mentioned, so a probable estimate could have been three. Each of those three colleagues could have gone to the store and infected three customers. Twelve infected individuals are now added to the previous four infected. The total is now sixteen. The co-worker that then took him to the hospital could have infected his wife, sister, and brother. Four infected individuals are added to the sixteen to make a new total of twenty. Some “doctors at the hospital examined Monet” (Preston, 1994, pg. 12). If two doctors attended him, then each of them could have infected three patients. Eight more infected people would be added to twenty, totaling to twenty-eight. Next, the taxi man that took Monet to the airport could have spread the illness to three customers. Four more would be added to the twenty-eight, for a total of thirty-two. Monet “boarded a Kenya Airways flight” (Preston, 1994, pg. 12). Thirty-five people on the plane (including the pilot) could have infected three friends after getting off of the plane. These thirty-five people would have infected one-hundred and five people. One-hundred and forty individuals, plus the previous thirty-two, bring the current total to one-hundred and seventy-two. On the plane, “a flight attendant [gave] him some paper towels” (Preston, 1994, pg. 15). This flight attendant could have infected her three sisters, adding four more to the total. Now, there are one-hundred and seventy-six sick people. After the plane landed, one of the “Nairobi taxi drivers [took him to the] Nairobi hospital” (Preston, 1994, pg.16-17). This taxi driver could have also infected three more customers, adding four more to the total number of infected individuals. The total increases to one-hundred and eighty. While in the hospital, “nurses and aides came running…and they lifted Charles Monet onto the gurney” (Preston, 1994, pg. 19). A possible five nurses and aides could have each infected three patients in the hospitable. Fifteen more individuals make the total increase from one-hundred and eighty to one-hundred and ninety-five. The last person that made contact with Monet before his death was “a young doctor named Shem Musoke” (Preston, 1994, pg. 19). This doctor could have infected three nurses in the hospital. In this scenario, the total number of people that could have become infected due to Monet is one-hundred and ninety-nine.
Preston, R. (1994). The Hot Zone. New York: Random House.
Wow, Kimberly I am so impressed- you just did the disease detective work of an epidemiologist. May I ask you to research who "Patient Zero" was of the current outbreak in West Africa?
Patient zero of the current ebola outbreak in West Africa was “a [two-year-old] toddler named Emile Ouamouno” (Yan and Smith, 2015). He lived in Meliandou, Guinea and died of Ebola in December 2013. He became infected with ebola because of “a single zoonotic transmission event” involving contact with bats (Stableford, 2014). The ebola virus jumped species, from bats to humans. Shortly after his death, his sister, mother, and grandmother all died from ebola as well. All of the people that attended these individuals’ funerals were exposed to a fatal virus. Unknowingly, some of these attendees did contract the virulent virus. After only a few months, the ebola virus spread from patient zero, to “Guinea to Sierra Leone, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, the United States, Spain, Mali and the United Kingdom” (Stableford, 2014). As of yesterday, the total cases of ebola have increased to 25,855 individuals and the total number of deaths has increased to 10,702 individuals (2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa - Case Counts, 2015).
Stableford, D. (2014, December 30). Ebola's 'patient zero' got virus from playing in a bat tree, scientists say 2-year-old boy 'may have been infected by playing in a hollow tree housing colony of insectivorous free‐tailed bats' Retrieved April 18, 2015, from http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-boy-index-patient-zero-bat-tree-182151708.html
Yan, H., & Smith, E. (2015, January 21). Ebola: Patient zero was a toddler in Guinea - CNN.com. Retrieved April 18, 2015, from http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/28/health/ebola-patient-zero/
2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa - Case Counts. (2015, February 10). Retrieved April 18, 2015, from http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html
Like Kimberly says, the spread would have been quick and wide spread. However, this bring many other questions into mind such as –what if Johnnie’s kids played with neighboring children? That could have also been possible and meant that those children passed it onto their family which later passed it on to more people than expected. This means that the number could have been well over 200, but what if half of the people in the plane did not come in contact with the virus, it would mean that the total number could easily slice down to half and less than 100 people would have been infected. Preston, R. (1994). The Hot Zone. New York: Random House.
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ReplyDeleteFrom the moment he showed signs of the disease to his death, Monet made contact with many people. After he came back from Kitum Cave, “his housekeeper, Johnnie…tried to take care of him” (Preston, 1994, pg. 11). Johnnie could have gone home and infected her husband and two daughters. The total number of those infected would be four. Then, Monet’s “colleagues …went to his bungalow to see if he was alright” (Preston, 1994, pg. 12). The number of colleagues was not mentioned, so a probable estimate could have been three. Each of those three colleagues could have gone to the store and infected three customers. Twelve infected individuals are now added to the previous four infected. The total is now sixteen. The co-worker that then took him to the hospital could have infected his wife, sister, and brother. Four infected individuals are added to the sixteen to make a new total of twenty. Some “doctors at the hospital examined Monet” (Preston, 1994, pg. 12). If two doctors attended him, then each of them could have infected three patients. Eight more infected people would be added to twenty, totaling to twenty-eight. Next, the taxi man that took Monet to the airport could have spread the illness to three customers. Four more would be added to the twenty-eight, for a total of thirty-two. Monet “boarded a Kenya Airways flight” (Preston, 1994, pg. 12). Thirty-five people on the plane (including the pilot) could have infected three friends after getting off of the plane. These thirty-five people would have infected one-hundred and five people. One-hundred and forty individuals, plus the previous thirty-two, bring the current total to one-hundred and seventy-two. On the plane, “a flight attendant [gave] him some paper towels” (Preston, 1994, pg. 15). This flight attendant could have infected her three sisters, adding four more to the total. Now, there are one-hundred and seventy-six sick people. After the plane landed, one of the “Nairobi taxi drivers [took him to the] Nairobi hospital” (Preston, 1994, pg.16-17). This taxi driver could have also infected three more customers, adding four more to the total number of infected individuals. The total increases to one-hundred and eighty. While in the hospital, “nurses and aides came running…and they lifted Charles Monet onto the gurney” (Preston, 1994, pg. 19). A possible five nurses and aides could have each infected three patients in the hospitable. Fifteen more individuals make the total increase from one-hundred and eighty to one-hundred and ninety-five. The last person that made contact with Monet before his death was “a young doctor named Shem Musoke” (Preston, 1994, pg. 19). This doctor could have infected three nurses in the hospital. In this scenario, the total number of people that could have become infected due to Monet is one-hundred and ninety-nine.
ReplyDeletePreston, R. (1994). The Hot Zone. New York: Random House.
Wow, Kimberly I am so impressed- you just did the disease detective work of an epidemiologist. May I ask you to research who "Patient Zero" was of the current outbreak in West Africa?
DeletePatient zero of the current ebola outbreak in West Africa was “a [two-year-old] toddler named Emile Ouamouno” (Yan and Smith, 2015). He lived in Meliandou, Guinea and died of Ebola in December 2013. He became infected with ebola because of “a single zoonotic transmission event” involving contact with bats (Stableford, 2014). The ebola virus jumped species, from bats to humans. Shortly after his death, his sister, mother, and grandmother all died from ebola as well. All of the people that attended these individuals’ funerals were exposed to a fatal virus. Unknowingly, some of these attendees did contract the virulent virus. After only a few months, the ebola virus spread from patient zero, to “Guinea to Sierra Leone, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, the United States, Spain, Mali and the United Kingdom” (Stableford, 2014). As of yesterday, the total cases of ebola have increased to 25,855 individuals and the total number of deaths has increased to 10,702 individuals (2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa - Case Counts, 2015).
DeleteStableford, D. (2014, December 30). Ebola's 'patient zero' got virus from playing in a bat tree, scientists say 2-year-old boy 'may have been infected by playing in a hollow tree housing colony of insectivorous free‐tailed bats' Retrieved April 18, 2015, from http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-boy-index-patient-zero-bat-tree-182151708.html
Yan, H., & Smith, E. (2015, January 21). Ebola: Patient zero was a toddler in Guinea - CNN.com. Retrieved April 18, 2015, from http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/28/health/ebola-patient-zero/
2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa - Case Counts. (2015, February 10). Retrieved April 18, 2015, from http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html
Like Kimberly says, the spread would have been quick and wide spread. However, this bring many other questions into mind such as –what if Johnnie’s kids played with neighboring children? That could have also been possible and meant that those children passed it onto their family which later passed it on to more people than expected. This means that the number could have been well over 200, but what if half of the people in the plane did not come in contact with the virus, it would mean that the total number could easily slice down to half and less than 100 people would have been infected.
DeletePreston, R. (1994). The Hot Zone. New York: Random House.
good point...
Delete